By Sagar V. Mankar Ubisoft’s share price has taken a significant hit following the release of its highly anticipated Star Wars Outlaws game.
The open-world Star Wars title, developed by Massive Entertainment, launched on August 27th, 2023, and since then, Ubisoft’s share price has plummeted by an alarming 12%, reaching a near 10-year low of 15.54 euros.
As of the time of writing, Ubisoft’s market value stands at a modest 1.96 billion euros.
The market’s reaction to Star Wars Outlaws has been less than enthusiastic to begin with. According to Reuters, JP Morgan analyst Daniel Kerven stated that the game has “struggled to meet sales expectations despite positive critical reviews.”
Physical launch sales in the UK also were reported to be 55% lower than those of last year’s Star Wars: Jedi Survivor, according to GfK data.
Consequently, the JP Morgan analyst has lowered his sales expectations for the game, revising the projected figures from 7.5 million to 5.5 million by March 2025. Analysts suggest that the game’s disappointing performance may be partly due to the significantly higher development costs compared to Ubisoft’s previous title, Assassin’s Creed Mirage.
Furthermore, early indicators, such as Twitch viewership data, suggest that Outlaws is underperforming compared to Mirage by approximately 15%. The game’s mixed reception is also reflected in its Metacritic score, which averages 76, with a user score of just 4.9, indicating a generally unfavorable response from players.
Outlaws is not the only game causing concern for Ubisoft. The company’s free-to-play Call of Duty rival, Xdefiant, has also faced challenges, with lower-than-expected interest following its strong launch in May. According to Midcap Partners analyst Charles-Louis Planade, the game has seen a substantial decline in player engagement, with peak concurrent players falling to around 20,000, further contributing to the drop in Ubisoft’s stock, which has lost over 30% since the start of the year.
The recent setbacks come at a critical time for Ubisoft, which has faced negative cash flows over the past four years due to game cancellations and delays. However, the company is hopeful that its next major release, Assassin’s Creed Shadows, a feudal-Japan-themed entry that fans have been eagerly anticipating, will help turn the tide.
Ubisoft is expected to report its second-quarter earnings at some point in October, where the sales or revenue of both Star Wars Outlaws and Xdefiant may provide insight into the company’s future prospects.